Bibhu Prasad Routray
Global-Views.org, 20 October 2012
In
the afternoon of October 19, 2012 ,
a group of suspected Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) terrorists opened fire at a convoy
of the Indian Army near Srinagar
railway station, at the outskirts of the Srinagar
city, capital of the Indian state of Jammu & Kashmir (J&K). While
fleeing through a nearby hotel, terrorists opened fire killing a hotel staffer
and injuring two others. The LeT spokesperson later claimed responsibility for
the attack. This incident and many past developments bear an ominous sign. Once
more, Kashmir could be heading towards turbulent days.
Terrorism
related fatalities have consistently dipped in Kashmir
since 2001, below the 1000 mark in 2007 and the 200 mark in 2011. According to
the South Asia Terrorism Portal, barely eighty fatalities have been recorded
this year until October 18.
The
dip in violence is generally ascribed to three factors: Strengthening of the
counter-insurgency grid in J&K, which has neutralized much of the local
militancy; the unveiling of a range of confidence building measures between India
and Pakistan ; and
more importantly, the occupation of the Pakistani facilitators behind the cross-border
militancy along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Not surprisingly, coinciding
with the 2002 involvement of Pakistan
in the war on terror in Afghanistan ,
militant activities have steadily declined in J&K. The average annual
militancy related fatalities in the state was 2550 between 1990 and 2001. Between
2002 and 2011, it decreased to 1248. In the last three years (2009-2011) it has
averaged barely 311, a significant improvement ever since militancy started in
the state in 1990.
Not
surprisingly, official statements have hailed the return of normalcy to the
state. Notwithstanding the undercurrents of discontent, the number of tourists visiting
the state has increased. The state recorded highest inflow of tourists in 2011.
This has been cited by New Delhi as
an example of stability in J&K. In view of the improved situation, presence
of central police forces has been reduced by four battalions in past months.
However,
in spite these positive indicators, the return of the state to chaos and days
of militancy looks more probable than ever before. Several indicators of not
only the untamed capacity of the militants, but their real intent of restarting
a campaign of violence are now available.
At
the foremost is a tactical campaign by the militants to target New
Delhi ’s endeavors to restart village level self-government
institutions (called Panchayats) in the state. Successful elections held to the
Panchayats in 2011 amid calls for boycott by the militants had been hailed by
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh as a “proof of the people’s desire to be able to
lead normal lives free from the shadow of violence and terrorism.”
In
recent months, militants have killed eight of such elected representatives. The
climate of fear and intimidation has led to fifty-two representatives
submitting written resignations to the authorities. Another 900 have published
their resignations in local newspapers or have announced such resignations in the local mosques. The J&K government claims that the
unwritten resignations do not count and the representatives continue to be in
office. And yet it is no position to ensure that these 900 men return to work. The
proclaimed gains from the 2011 elections stands severely eroded.
The
October 19 attack was the first attack in capital Srinagar
since May 2012. However, in the past nine months, terrorists have succeeded in
not only in setting up arms dumps in what could be described as the state’s
interior, but also carried out a number of precise spectacular attacks on
security forces in many of J&K’s urban centers. These attacks may not yet
have resulted in large number of fatalities. But they do suggest an untamed
terrorist potential of disruption.
The
Indian military has consistently warned of the thriving terrorist
infrastructure in the Pakistan
occupied Kashmir (PoK), even when militancy was on a low
web in the state. The J&K police intelligence show 824 youth “missing” from
the state have reportedly joined militancy and are being trained in the PoK
area. Moreover, official data indicate a 100 percent increase in cross-border
infiltration by terror groups during the first seven months of 2012. Compared
to ninety-three Pakistani militants who attempted to cross over last year, 193
militants have already infiltrated this year.
Over
the past years, both India
and Pakistan
have made visible progress in their bilateral relations. Many of these
developments are understandably results of the back channel diplomacy of the United
States . In September 2012, both countries
signed the liberalized visa agreement. In 2011, Pakistan
appeared to make a break from the past by agreeing to reciprocate to India ’s
1998 gesture of granting Most Favored Nation (MFN) to Pakistan .
Ministers and senior level officials of both countries have met at regular
intervals. For two successive years- 2011 and 2012, Prime Minister Singh did not mention Pakistan
in his addresses delivered on India ’s
Independence Day.
However,
these positive developments notwithstanding, the issue of Kashmir
continues to be whipped up by Pakistani civilian and military leaders to
generate popular support at home. On September 25, Pakistan
President Asif Ali Zardari reiterated in the United Nations that Pakistan
“will continue to support the right of the people of Jammu
and Kashmir to peacefully choose their destiny.” The
restart of full-blown terrorism in J&K, as a result of such moral support, can
obliterate all the political and economic achievements of the past years.
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