Myanmar’s National Reconciliation: An Audit of Insurgencies and Ceasefires

Bibhu Prasad Routray

IPCS Special Report 138, 28 March 2013

Myanmar has undergone positive transformation; even the handful of scholars, disputing the real intentions of the military backed civilian regime, agree that the a wind of change has swept across the country, bringing about changes thought to be highly improbable few years ago. Since March 2011, changes continue to occur in the political, administrative as well as legal realm.  Sanctions have been lifted and diplomatic relations between the erstwhile pariah country and the western nations have resumed.

However, even a transformed Myanmar is still miles away from durable peace. Notwithstanding numerous ceasefire agreements the government has signed with the ethnic armed insurgencies, peace remains tenuous. Encounters, albeit at a low scale, continue between the Kachins and the Myanmarese army, underlining the distrust of the periphery with the centre. Hurriedly signed ceasefire agreements continue to show occasional signs of fragility. Unless both the government and the ethnic groups demonstrate continued commitment towards peace, the country's new found tranquility may return to a state of hostility.

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