Monday, January 27, 2014

2013 Assessment: Left-wing extremism in India

Bibhu Prasad Routray

27 January 2014

Surrender of a top leader is not an event an extremist outfit looks forward to in the beginning of a new year. On 13 January, GVK Prasad alias Gudsa Usendi, spokesperson of Dandakaranya Special Zonal Committee of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), surrendered to the Andhra Pradesh police. Usendi was in charge of issuing press statements on behalf of the outfit. He was also responsible for some of the its military successes in Chhattisgarh, having directed and coordinated attacks in which security force personnel were killed. In his surrender statement, Usendi complained of ill health and disillusionment with the outfit's excessive reliance on violence. Usendi's surrender was followed by few other surrenders of low and middle ranking cadres in Chhattisgarh.

A couple of days later, the CPI-Maoist issued an audio statement trivializing the impact of Usendi's surrender. In the recorded statement issued to the press, Dandakaranya Special Zonal Committee secretary Ramanna, called Usendi a 'traitor' and a 'morally flawed' individual. Ramanna criticised Usendi's ways with the women cadres and accused him of abandoning his wife and surrendering with another woman cadre, Santoshi Markam. The statement also noted that such surrenders, which is 'not a new phenomenon for the revolutionary movement' would have no impact on the revolution that the Maoists are waging. 

The statement, at one level, was a natural reaction of the outfit, which has suffered from a series of splits and surrenders, and has also lost a number of senior leaders to arrests and killings in the past years. While deaths and arrests are unavoidable parts of its military campaign, the outfit was most perturbed by the possible impact of the public denouncement of its ideology by its erstwhile lieutenants. By criticising the surrendering cadres and idolising the ones who got killed in encounters with the security forces, the Maoists want to keep their flock together.

Recent history of left-wing extremism in India bears testimony to the damaging impact of neutralisation of key leaders on the outfit's overall activity. Kishenji's killing in November 2011 led to the marginalisation of the Maoists in West Bengal. Sabyasachi Panda's in August 2012 rebellion in Odisha was a serious setback for the outfit's plan of expansion in that state. The September 2009 arrest of  Kobad Ghandy and the July 2010 killing of Cherikuri Rajkumar alias Azad constituted blows to the outfit's policy making apparatus as well as to its expansion strategy in southern India. Usendi's sudden departure from the scene would certainly affect the outfit. That the outfit would find a leader to replace him and would eventually overcome his loss is, however, a different debate.

At the other level, the satisfaction expressed in the official circles, post Usendi's surrender that the CPI-Moist would eventually crumble because of its excessive reliance on violence and disenchantment of its cadres from the party's ideology, may be misplaced. That Usendi's surrender and fair treatment accorded to him by the state would lead to a stream of surrenders of top cadres is far fetched. That Maoist violence would die a natural death without any substantial effort from the state is an unreal expectation.

Ground reality in the Maoist conflict theatres is a tale of incessant Maoist violence. While the level of violence orchestrated in 2010, so far the worst year of Maoist violence, resulting in the deaths of 1005 civilians and security forces would possibly remain unmatched, 2013 continued to witness unacceptable level of violence accounting for 394 lives. Although this is a marginal decline over the previous year, in which 415 fatalities were recorded, the extremists continue to be influential in their stronghold areas. In spite of the killing of 99, surrender of 283 and arrest of 1397 Maoist cadres in 2013, the outfit's level of violence has not shown signs of abatement. States like Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar and Odisha remain affected by significant amount of extremist mobilisation as well as violence.

The holding of peaceful assembly elections in Chhattisgarh in November has been projected as an achievement for the state. This was achieved mostly due to the deployment of about 150 companies of central security forces. There was little to suggest that the state is in the process of developing its wherewithal to replicate the Andhra Pradesh success on its soil. Of the 218 encounters between the security forces and the extremists, 92 took place in this state. Bihar's unique approach towards the problem has merely translated into its diminishing ability to neutralise the Maoists, where as the extremists continue to kill, abduct and snatch weapons. Not a single Maoist was killed in this state in 2013, although 42 civilians and 27 security forces lost their lives in extremist attacks. While Maoist inroads into the northeast remains mostly an exaggerated claim by the Assam government, the CPI-Maoist appears to have made concerted efforts for expansion into the southern states.

In 2013, security forces scored small victories against the Maoists. Small area operations led to recovery of areas under the Maoist stronghold in Jharkhand and Odisha. But the year also witnessed setbacks in the form of the Darbha attack in Chhattisgarh's Sukma district in May in which 27 people including some senior politicians were killed. Interrogation of Gudsa Usendi revealed details of the planning that went into carrying out the attack. In addition, in Jharkhand, the CPI-Maoist carried out a pre-planned attack killing the Superintendent of Police of Pakur district in July. Moreover, the security forces in Chhattisgarh were also involved in at least two encounters in which civilians rather than extremists were killed, highlighting the persistence of intelligence collection problems.

It is the continuing ability to inflict damages on the state, which would keep the CPI-Maoist relevant in the eyes of its sympathisers. On the other hand, continuous failings of the state to implement a strategy against the extremists will maintain the CPI-Maoist's position as a potent adversary in 2014.

Republished in Eurasia Review under the title, 2013 Assessment: Naxalism in India

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