IPCS Article No. 3774, 5 December 2012
As Myanmar
undergoes a process of positive transformation, two approaches have been
prescribed with regards to dealing with such forces of change. The first
approach, primarily propagated by the West, is proactive in its content. It
advocates that the process of change in Myanmar
must be acknowledged and encouraged through rewards. On the other hand, the
second school mostly predominated by the pro-democracy and civil liberty groups
established both within and outside Myanmar ,
prescribes caution. There is little doubt that the official stopover by US
President Barack Obama on 19 November
2012 , the first ever sitting President to have visited the country,
has emboldened the first school of thought.
Obama,
during his six-hour halt, insisted that his visit was not an endorsement of the
Thein Sein regime. He, however, underlined the need to deliver a note of
congratulations to the regime for having done the unthinkable. He asserted that
the changes in Myanmar-
"opening the door to a country that respects human rights and political
freedom"- are for real and needs the support of the world.
There
is a wider feeling in the region that for Myanmar, which still has a long way
to go in establishing democracy as well as a benchmark for the well-being of
its multiple ethnicities; the visit by the US President, albeit with a
self-proclaimed goal of pushing for reforms, came far too early. Obama's
statement that the wait for a "perfect democracy" in Myanmar
might imply an "awful long time", somewhat vindicated this
conclusion.
While
an idealistic, perfect democracy is an impractical dream to pursue, long-term Myanmar
watchers point at a range of issues that still remain unaddressed in the Thein
Sein government's year-long reforms process. There has been little progress in
the realm of constitutional reforms, which in its present form, secures the
dominance of the military. The record of the regime in ending ethnic conflicts,
especially in the context of the Kachins, highlights the division between the
hardliners and the reformists within the military. The government's posture
during the recent Rohingya-Buddhist riots in the Rakhine state underlines its
under-preparedness in terms of taking up the role of an unbiased arbiter of
justice.
With
this backdrop, Obama's visit appears to have two dimensions, despite it being
seemingly symptomatic of the West’s impatience to embrace Myanmar .
Firstly, the US
wishes to take advantage of Myanmar 's
economic potential. Secondly, the rush is also a part of the “Pivot to Asia ”
strategy in which all Southeast Asian countries, including Myanmar ,
are critical components.
Multinational
Corporations are keen to tap opportunities in the region in order to give
substantial competition to their Chinese counterparts, who have already been
operating in Myanmar
for several years. In November, the Myanmar Parliament passed a
foreign-investment law removing some of the restrictions on foreign ownership
of joint ventures. In early 2013, it will pass the new mining law reforming the
existing law that was formulated in 1994. Myanmar 's
Ministry of Mines has identified China ,
Vietnam , Thailand ,
Russia and the US
as prospective participants in the growth of this sector. It is difficult for the
US to not be a
part of the euphoria that potential investment opportunities in Myanmar
could bring. The early assessments regarding Myanmar 's
abysmal state of preparedness to absorb the attention it is receiving at the
moment have not deterred such optimism.
More
importantly, the rush is also for advancing the US
pivot in Asia . On 18 November 2012 , a day before Obama's stopover,
Myanmarese naval officers boarded the amphibious assault ship USS Bonhomme
Richard in the Andaman Sea .
In October, a delegation of thirty military and civilian US officials visited Myanmar ,
in what could be the most comprehensive push for military to military dialogue
between the two countries. The US
is also reportedly considering the idea, mooted by Thailand ,
to let three Myanmarese officers visit Cobra Gold, the largest multi-lateral
annual military exercise in the Asia-Pacific, as observers. Scheduled
discussions are continuing to include Myanmarese leaders in some of the US
military’s academic circles. The growing view in Washington
is that the support of Myanmar ’s
military is essential to any lasting reforms or peace agreements with ethnic
minorities. At the same time, the US
appears determined to take Myanmar
as an important partner in many of its military priorities in Southeast
Asia , including anti-piracy and freedom of navigation.
During
her November 2012 visit to India, opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi had
cautioned against the sense of sanguinity Myanmar now generates all over the
world. Warning against over-optimism about political changes in Myanmar ,
she advised a middle path- "Not to be over-optimistic, at the same time to
be encouraging of what needs to be encouraged". However, the fact remains
that the pace of reforms, which in President Obama's words "none foresaw",
appears to have done away with the need to be circumspect.
Whether
Myanmar would
be willing to abandon China
and throw its entire lot with the US
remains to be seen. Nonetheless, in the coming months, the US ’s
nascent engagement with Myanmar
is sure to produce a remarkable spectre of competing strategic manoeuvring in
the region.
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