Cyclone Phailin: Measuring Success and Victimhood

Bibhu Prasad Routray

14 October 2013

Cyclone Phailin came, wreaked havoc and went. The overall casualties were limited (in the range of 20, according to various reports), although damage to the crops, green cover, houses, and infrastructure has been significant. Odisha government had set a zero-loss of life target and nearly achieved it. For right reasons, both the Odisha and the Andhra Pradesh government have been credited with spearheading, along with the Central government agencies, major evacuations that saved lives.

However, the number of actual evacuees in Odisha remains somewhat confusing, amid claims by various authorities. Right answers are important, for managing the aftermath of the cyclone and rehabilitation of the people, would remain linked to such numbers.

A day before the cyclone media reports speculated that ‘lakhs’ of people have been evacuated from the would be affected districts.

Hours before the cyclone, Odisha Revenue and Disaster Management Minister S.N. Patra told the media that a total of 3.61 lakh people have been evacuated in the last 24 hours which included 1.2 lakh were from Ganjam district alone. Patro provided detailed break up of the evacuation. Besides Ganjam, 80,000 people in Puri district, 16,380 in Khurda district, 56,998 in Jagatsingh district, 16,000 in Kendrapara district, 14,205 in Bhadrak district, 1950 in Balasore district, 46,409 in Cuttack district, 1,235 in Nayagarh district and 8,000 in Gajapati district were moved to safety, he said.

On the same day, Union Home Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde claimed that the government in both Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, has evacuated about 550,000 people from their homes in low-lying coastal areas. Given that close to 1 lakh people were evacuated in Andhra Pradesh, Shinde’s statement had surpassed Patro’s figures by close to a lakh.

A report by NDTV, on the other hand, quoted sources in the Odisha Chief Minister’s Office (CMO) saying that “over seven lakh people had been evacuated from the coastal areas before the monster storm”. So going by this report, the CMO had nearly doubled the figures detailed by minister Patra.

In any event, while the official estimates remained between 3.61 lakhs to 7 lakhs hours before the cyclone struck, it increased significantly a day after the cyclone.

On 13 October, Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik said that 8.75 lakh people have been evacuated. This included 1.8 lakhs in Ganjam district alone. Compared to minister Patra’s statement the previous day, evacuation in Ganjam had increased by 40,000 and the overall evacuation by 4.14 lakhs.

The disparity could be because of two reasons. One, the prevailing chaos had prevented an actual estimate of parallel evacuation efforts (both voluntary as well as forced), which were taking place in several districts involving several agencies. So the final figure could only be tabulated after the cyclone passed over. Second, the lure of rehabilitation packages (in what ever form) has led to the emergence of a large mass of ghost evacuees.

Whatever is the case, a note of clarification would be in order.