Bibhu Prasad Routray
The
recent developments in Maldives
related to the GMR issue have received much attention in the media and policy
circles. As specifics regarding the episode continue to emerge, two conclusions
can be safely drawn.
First,
the event caught Delhi by surprise.
Much like the unrest in February this year that ousted Maldives’ first
democratically elected government headed by Mohammed Nasheed and brought in
Mohammad Waheed Hassan as the new president catching the S M Krishna-led
Ministry of External Affairs (MEA ) off guard,
the November 27 decision by the Waheed government too came as a bolt from the
blue for the MEA , headed by a new minister, Salman
Khurshid. Till November 27, New Delhi
had hoped that phone conversations between Khurshid and his counterpart in Male
would be sufficient to deter Maldives
from annulling the agreement with the GMR.
Second,
it represented a climbdown from India .
On November 27, MEA statements, in no
uncertain terms, underlined that the decision by the Maldives
cabinet would adversely impact the bilateral relations. The MEA
had vowed to “take all necessary measures to ensure the safety and security of
its interests and its nationals”. In less than two weeks, MEA ’s
valour had taken a beating. On December 10, the ministry hoped that the
takeover of the airport by the government in Male would not affect the
bilateral ties. Khurshid meekly wished that the incident “will not be used or
allowed to be used by some fringe political groups that would lead to
deterioration of relations between two”.
Apart
from issues such as prudence of the government to wage a fight on behalf of a
private company, the harakiri in Maldives is indeed a narrative on one of New
Delhi’s most glaring problems in foreign policy-making—the inability of the MEA
to evaluate unfolding events and strategise accordingly. Much has been written
about MEA ’s institutional deficiencies. In
the MEA , Maldives
is handled by a joint secretary, who also handles Sri
Lanka , Bangladesh
and Myanmar . Obviously,
with all three countries demanding his attention, little quality time is left
for Maldives . It
is not surprising that the last update of the ‘country brief’ on Maldives
on MEA ’s website (at the time of the writing
of the piece) was in January 2012.
Even
in the National Security Council Secretariat that advises the National Security
Adviser, Maldives
remains a neglected area of focus. An officer looking at 15 other countries is
usually assigned to prepare an incident-inspired brief. None of India ’s
universities teaching international relations has an expert on Maldives .
Not a single think tank, both government and private, in India ,
has produced a single policy paper on Maldives
in the past years.
Products
of this abysmal lack of knowledge, both within and outside the government in New
Delhi , on a country that is an integral part of the
South Asian community are incongruous conclusions on several aspects
potentially impacting the security of India .
For example, there is little knowledge about the penetration of the Chinese
into the official circles as well as the political parties in Maldives .
Little effort goes into documenting, let alone analysing, the continuous anti-India
tirade carried out by the politically influential fringe groupings in Maldives .
Similarly, growing role of Islamist radicals and Lashkar-e-Toiba cadres within Maldives ’
mostly moderate Muslim population also belongs to the realm of the unknown.
In
retrospect, December 8 ruling by the Singapore
courts in favour of the Maldives
government would have come as providence for the MEA .
It provided a much-needed soft landing for the ministry’s lack of ability. After
the ruling, Khurshid was quick to underline the “legal” basis of the problem
and expressed helplessness of the government to do anything in the face of such
a ruling. Interestingly, the minister appeared to overlook the determination of
the Maldives
government to go ahead with the airport takeover irrespective of the court
ruling.
Given
India ’s
historical as well as contemporary linkages, its economic influence and the
sheer footprints Indians and Indian companies enjoy in Maldives ,
New Delhi ’s diplomatic leverage
over Male should have been the most authoritative. With a total strength of 28,000,
Indians are the second largest expatriate community in the Maldives .
More than one-fourth of Maldives ’
400 doctors are Indians. More than one-fourth of its teachers are Indian. MEA ’s
inability to strategise such strength appears bewildering, to say the least.
Elections
are scheduled to be held in the Maldives
in 2014. New Delhi hopes that a pro-India
alliance would emerge victorious. With its existing levels of competency, however,
it can do little if such hopes are belied.
Republished in Eurasia Review and attracted some ill-informed mention in Write the Right
3 comments:
India needs a proactive foreign policy in the Indian Ocean. India was one of the first countries to recognize the new regime in Maldives after the ousting of President Nasheed. Now again India is making a big mistake if it believes there will be a free and fair election in the Maldives and a pro-India regime will win. There will be no such free and fair elections. This is a fascist regime currently in the Maldives. They will continue unless regional superpowers are able to exert their power and influence to get Maldives back on the democratic track. If India fails to do it and go on as usual, then once again India will be failing in the Indian Ocean.
India was the first country to recognize the new regime in Maldives after the ousting of President Nasheed, which was its first mistake. Instead of waiting to see how things would develop, they rushed to endorse the new regime thereby giving it legitimacy. India also used its influence through Commonwealth Secretariat and also neighbour Bangladesh to ensure that the regime was given due recognition at the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group (CMAG). Commonwealth Secretary General (former Indian High Commissioner) Kamalesh Sharma, pre-empted CMAG ministers by endorsing the Commission of Inquiry report, thereby forcing the ministers to accept the report as valid. Perhaps India naively believed that the threat to GMR would be resolved if it helped the regime. Now once again India is making the same mistakes if they think this regime will hold free and fair elections. This is a fascist regime and there will be no such free and fair elections in the Maldives next year which may bring in an India-friendly regime. India needs to wake up and exert all the pressure it can on this regime; and show that India will not sit back and take flak from it. If they fail to do it, India will be facing bigger problems in the Indian Ocean.
One factor is not at all understood by the media, despite their sincerity to present facts. The coup regime in Maldives and the former Dictator Gayoom has moles in government of India and specially in the Indian foreign office. this is not imaginary but a fact.
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